View unanswered posts | View active topics It is currently Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:54 am



Reply to topic  [ 12 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next
North Korea 
Author Message
Heinlein Nexus
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 10, 2008 8:10 am
Posts: 2228
Location: Pacific NorthWest
Post North Korea
Amazing how many people in the West are getting wound up over North Korea's latest shenanigans. Must just not be old enough to remember even the last ten times they pulled this crap. They have everything to gain and nothing to lose from bellicosity without real action. Vice-versa if they were to actually, like, do anything.

The South Koreans understand this. The USA, less so, I think, or they would have pulled their forces out long ago. (There again, the US still has forces in Germany and Britain... why?) Does anyone here seriously think there's the slightest chance that North Korea would do anything more than firing the occasional round across the DMZ?


Sat Mar 30, 2013 2:06 pm
Profile WWW
PITA Bred
User avatar

Joined: Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:17 pm
Posts: 2401
Location: The Quiet Earth
Post Re: North Korea
Well, it's the UK papers that seem to be squawking the loudest and silliest about this. :)

As someone who has been aware of the number of times the Norks have rattled their rusty sabre, I will say that there seems to be a more serious edge to this event; both lil Kimmy and the US are using language and so forth that's escalated the level of the challenge.

This is also the first time we have Norks with (1) nukes; (2) medium and long range missiles and (3) a new and utterly untried leader who desperately needs to be taken seriously by His Dear People. I would not be surprised if they do something on the stupid scale, even if it's not nuking Seattle or Kona.


Sun Mar 31, 2013 7:58 am
Profile
NitroForum Oldster

Joined: Sun Apr 13, 2008 7:05 am
Posts: 238
Post Re: North Korea
in actuality the korean war has never ended- in 1953 all that was agreed upon is a truce and ongoing negotiations- they continue to this day- do the south koreans fear the north will ever again roll across the 38th parallel ? sadly they do live with this fear and it's fanned by history and the bellicosity of the kim regimes - many years ago i was stationed 20 miles south of the dmz (we were told our life expectancy was approx 20 minutes if a full attack was launched)- there were (and are) constant incidents and provocations by the north with a resultant escalation of the fear level and scrambling to ready for what appears more insanity from the north- the fact they now hold nuclear weapons (and the capacity to deliver them) only drives the fear factor even higher- being ruled by a gang of one means anything is possible- do i believe north korea will provoke a renewal of the war ? only if they wish to committ suicide as a nation- they would be annihilated- but the resulting devastation would certainly be immense for both the south and the north- you desire a sure sign the north is totally nuts ? embracing, as an honored guest of state, dennis rodman ( all around kook and ex-nba player) - we (south korea, the us, and other allies) should remain vigilant and be prepared to cope with an insane act by the north.


Sun Mar 31, 2013 10:07 am
Profile
User avatar

Joined: Tue Dec 02, 2008 8:22 am
Posts: 603
Location: Reno, NV
Post Re: North Korea
James Gifford wrote:
This is also the first time we have Norks with (1) nukes; (2) medium and long range missiles and (3) a new and utterly untried leader who desperately needs to be taken seriously by His Dear People. I would not be surprised if they do something on the stupid scale, even if it's not nuking Seattle or Kona.


I'm thinking the same thing. Kim Jong Un is showing no signs of stability or rationality. As the child of Kim Jong Il, I don't expect that he ever learned growing up that the top guy in his country cannot have everything he wants while behaving capriciously and brutally towards his own people and others. Maybe somebody said "no" to him and made it stick while he was a child. Maybe his father did before his father died. But now? Just watching his grandfather when he was young, and then his father through the rest of his childhood and young adulthood, would have taught him that the Kim-in-charge in North Korea had no limits. He appears to have internalized that observation.

I definitely favor sending diplomats to him. I DO NOT favor American withdrawal from the Korean peninsula, however. I think Peter called this one wrong.

_________________
Catherine Jefferson <ctiydspmrz@ergosphere.net>
Home Page: http://www.ergosphere.net


Sun Mar 31, 2013 11:03 am
Profile WWW
Heinlein Nexus
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 10, 2008 8:10 am
Posts: 2228
Location: Pacific NorthWest
Post Re: North Korea
I don't see anything to get worked up about. It's part of the theater that the US feigns official trepidation. "Why yes, we are scared of you. No. Don't. Stop." It reinforces the NorKo ego and maintains the status quo. North Korea has to puff up its chest and look dangerous or their own people will start wondering why they're enduring such privation.

The only real threat here is an accident, like if a NoKo rocket goes off course and hits Japan by mistake.


Sun Mar 31, 2013 5:25 pm
Profile WWW
NitroForum Oldster

Joined: Sun Apr 13, 2008 7:05 am
Posts: 238
Post Re: North Korea
when decisions, regarding nuclear weapon use, are solely in the hands of a single unstable man the dangers of it's use increase expotentially- maintaining our current diplomatic scolding, rather than assuming a harder line, doesn't provoke a potential madman- there's too much at stake (how many south koreans will be lost? how many japanese? how many in the north? how many us troops? how much will it cost if this is set in motion?) one course is assure kim that his use of these weapons will be dealt with- as in "you and your country will be dead for a crime against humanity". kim has been even disturbing china, their supposed, pretty much only, ally- the chinese has begun publically critcizing kim and his government's provocative actions- bascially, the world must rein in kim however they can. if there's an error, it must be on the conservative side- IMHO :)


Sun Mar 31, 2013 6:59 pm
Profile
Heinlein Nexus
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 10, 2008 8:10 am
Posts: 2228
Location: Pacific NorthWest
Post Re: North Korea
You assume the weapons are under the sole control of the one guy. Perhaps it just looks that way. North Korea has long had a massive standing army, fully capable of overrunning the South in a heartbeat. No errant order or madcap hot flash sent them into action in the last fifty years, though. Sure, there would have been dire consequences. Just as there are now.

So they have nukes. So do India and Pakistan. The doomsday predictions of a territorial war between the two failed to materialize. This is just how North Korea gets the world to take it seriously enough to give it some resources, seeing as they have essentially none of their own.


Sun Mar 31, 2013 9:30 pm
Profile WWW
PITA Bred
User avatar

Joined: Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:17 pm
Posts: 2401
Location: The Quiet Earth
Post Re: North Korea
PeterScott wrote:
This is just how North Korea gets the world to take it seriously enough to give it some resources, seeing as they have essentially none of their own.

Nork could have negotiated a place at the world table any time in the last fifty years. They've chosen to protect their isolation and internal control at all costs, now to the point where even China is keeping them at arm's length.

I predict that the situation will either blow up into full-scale something on the war scale within this year (probably much earlier, around summer) or be all but defused (without war) within three. We're past the time when they are going to get anything they want, including tacking a pair on Kimmy's image, without something more than just sabre-rattling or massive concessions.


Mon Apr 01, 2013 6:34 am
Profile
Heinlein Nexus
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 10, 2008 8:10 am
Posts: 2228
Location: Pacific NorthWest
Post Re: North Korea
JamesGifford wrote:
Nork could have negotiated a place at the world table any time in the last fifty years. They've chosen to protect their isolation and internal control at all costs, now to the point where even China is keeping them at arm's length.


Oh well, natch. But there is not much choice of strategy when you want to remain a communist dictatorship. Look what it cost Cuba. Speaking of which, the US didn't ratchet up the sanctions against Noko to Cuba levels even when Noko tested nukes. Hardly suggests that the State Department takes Noko seriously. They invade Iraq on the flimsiest of excuses and imaginary evidence of WMD, but NoKo launches and explodes actual missiles and bombs and... crickets. No wonder Noko is screaming Death to AmericaTM. They didn't get the respect they wanted the first time.

They want stuff, and this is the only way they know to get it: Bawl louder and louder until someone picks up the rattle for them. But they're not going to bite the hands that feed them.


Mon Apr 01, 2013 8:39 am
Profile WWW
NitroForum Oldster
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 10, 2008 7:57 am
Posts: 669
Location: DC Metro
Post Re: North Korea
I would not be at ALL surprised if North Korea launched a full scale assault on South Korea. They're just crazy enough to do it. If they did, Seoul would be obliterated in the first 20 minutes, as the North has something like 3,000 (conventional) short range missiles pointed at them. It would be a nasty affair, requiring much American bloodshed. Don't be at all surprised if it happens. If the North pulls out the nukes, look for the first American use of nuclear weapons since Nagasaki, and for Pyongyang to become a flat, round glowing spot on the map. I hope they're bluffing, 'cause it would be a freaking disaster.

_________________
"Being right too soon is socially unacceptable." - Heinlein, Expanded Universe


Wed Apr 03, 2013 12:02 pm
Profile WWW
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic   [ 12 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.
Designed by STSoftware for PTF