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Who will be the one? 
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Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2011 9:53 am
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Post Who will be the one?
Usually, presidential primary season is not all that fun, but the GOPs are having one hell of a contest.
I thought Romney had it sewed up, but it looks as if the tea types just aren't going to get behind him.
Anybody with any predictions?
And, for the sake of argument: Looks like November is Obama's to lose. Any argument?


Mon Feb 13, 2012 5:29 pm
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Post Re: Who will be the one?
1) I think Romney will get it eventually, simply because Newt Gingrich scares too many people and Rick Santorum won't be able to attract enough votes from the independents or libertarian-leaning economic conservatives.

2) I think there's an excellent chance the Republican candidate will win, even given the three-ring circus that the primary has proven to be. The race was definitely Obama's to loose, but I'm not sure he can turn it around at this point. If the Republicans loose this race, it will probably be their own factions and infighting that does them in.

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Mon Feb 13, 2012 6:26 pm
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Post Re: Who will be the one?
Do you really think Romney excites that many people, aside from the moderate gops whom Gingrich frightens?
I mean, where does the guy stand, on anything? What's his attraction to independents? What's he got to offer those who are out of work?
Obama may do a lot of grandstanding, but I still think the election's his to lose. Employment numbers are looking better all the time.


Mon Feb 13, 2012 7:12 pm
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Post Re: Who will be the one?
Romney doesn't excite anyone. Normally that would be a huge problem, but in this crazy race that's his strength. Too many other candidates are scaring people, some legitimately (Gingrich, IMHO) and some not (Obama, IMHO). Since this is crazy season and people are reacting largely from fear of the current economic and political troubles both inside the U.S. and around the world, they'll want known quantities. That means either the incumbent (Obama) or the least exciting, most reassuring, most technocratic fix-it guy that they can find (Romney).

Unless the economy actually improves enough that people start to feel safer in their jobs and homes, the usual advantage of being the incumbent isn't that much an advantage. I don't say this because I blame Obama for most of these problems. IMHO he's not done much to fix them; I think he's been a blaring mediocrity of a president. But he didn't cause this mess: it has roots in decisions made long before he was in office or even in the national spotlight. Romney is the best candidate the Republicans have to take on Obama at the moment. His problems in the primaries are mostly strengths in the general election -- he's seen as "not conservative enough", too willing to compromise, not ideologically driven. That's all stuff that will appeal to independents and moderates in both of the big political parties, who just want to *fix* the d*mn problems and not force the country onto a radically new path. And his lack of conservative purity/conviction isn't enough to cause conservative Republicans to stay home in droves when Obama is the alternative, as long as they're unhappy enough with Obama.

What could turn this around is if the economy, against all expectations, significantly improves. If *that* happens, Obama is going to win. Romney isn't the sort of candidate that wins many hearts and minds. If conditions improve, conservative Republicans won't vote for Obama, but they're far more likely to realize just how little stake they have in replacing him with what they view as another "compromiser" and stay home. And with most of those who are left of center at all and not prone to thinking things through carefully, Obama will get the credit for the improvement just as he got the blame for the problems. (Neither of which, IMHO, does he deserve.) <wry grin>

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Tue Feb 14, 2012 9:20 am
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Post Re: Who will be the one?
Who else thinks R-Boy has a chance? Why?


Thu Feb 16, 2012 6:56 pm
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Post Re: Who will be the one?
John Stewart thinks the GOP will end up with Romney after exhausting every alternative, and the guy is sharp.

Google for 'Romney dog' and check out the story of him strapping the family dog in a kennel to the roof of their car for their vacation into Canada. Dog was scared enough to wrap down the rear window, he hosed it off at a gas station and put it back in. A while ago, but he was an adult. That tells me enough about the man.


Thu Feb 16, 2012 9:24 pm
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Post Re: Who will be the one?
Yeah, Romney both comes across as cold in public and seems to be pretty cold. :/ But unless the economy improves significantly or he's implicated in a much more damaging scandal than being thoughtless about his dog, I think he's going to be the Republican candidate.

On a separate issue, I feel there's at least some chance that he'd do a better job than the incumbent. As a friend of mine likes to point out, the general election is a choice, not a smorgasbord. (sigh)

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Catherine Jefferson <ctiydspmrz@ergosphere.net>
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Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:20 am
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Post Re: Who will be the one?
sakeneko wrote:
the general election is a choice, not a smorgasbord. (sigh)


Didn't Goldwater use that as his campaign motto in '64?


Fri Feb 17, 2012 8:00 pm
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Post Re: Who will be the one?
I see that the autocorrection turned what I wrote into 'wrap'...


Fri Feb 17, 2012 9:55 pm
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Post Re: Who will be the one?
#DamnYouAutocorrect hits again. I have no idea why people don't just turn it off, or are smartphones so brain-dead these days that they don't let you?

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Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:34 pm
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