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The Next 100 Years (George Friedman, 2009)
http://www.heinleinsociety.org/thsnexus/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=224
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Author:  PeterScott [ Fri Apr 03, 2009 4:06 am ]
Post subject:  The Next 100 Years (George Friedman, 2009)

I gotta put in a plug here for The Next 100 Years by George Friedman. I got it after reading his occasional STRATFOR reports in John Mauldin's newsletters; STRATFOR does geopolitical analysis and forecasting. (Stop rolling your eyes; this guy has his feet on the ground.)

Do not confuse this guy with the bubbleheaded Thomas Friedman. I'm only 10% of the way through but it is already such a gold mine of revelations about the history and motivations of US world strategy for, say, control of the high seas. Every paragraph expounds something important that makes me go, "Wow, I didn't realize that..." but the reasoning is airtight. This guy sees the world from a professional perspective that lays bare many mysteries. Check it out.

Author:  JamesGifford [ Fri Apr 03, 2009 7:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Next 100 Years

Ooh, bare mysteries. We would have killed for those when I was in jr. high.

Thanks, you've actually intrigued me. I've had a dismal run of books lately and could use something that makes me sit up and go "wow."

Disrecommended reading:
Titanic's Last Secrets by the authors of Shadow Divers, a helluva book. A bad episode of a cable channel "Mysteries of the World" program, with weak conclusions, stretched to book length.

Elsewhere USA, Dalton Conley: a breathless romp through our fast-moving society and how it is shaping families and futures. If that sounds a lot like Future Shock, bravo. Conley has managed to repackage Toffler without once mentioning the man or his work. I'm sure it just wows his undergrad students but to anyone with a deeper well of larnin' it comes off as a stone skipping across a pond, impossibly arm-waving and lightweight.

Maybe we need a book review forum?

Author:  DanHenderson [ Fri Apr 03, 2009 1:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Next 100 Years

I just bought it as an audio book on audible.com.

Author:  PeterScott [ Thu Apr 09, 2009 7:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Next 100 Years

Just finished the book (due back at the library). When it gets into the future of space war, there are some huge Heinlein connections, especially on pages 188 and 202. Enjoy :-)

Author:  sakeneko [ Thu Apr 09, 2009 10:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Next 100 Years

(Sticking this book on the list to order next trip to the Powell's web site.) :-)

Author:  JackKelly [ Mon Apr 13, 2009 4:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Next 100 Years

Peter Scott wrote:
Just finished the book (due back at the library). When it gets into the future of space war, there are some huge Heinlein connections, especially on pages 188 and 202. Enjoy :-)


I'm about halfway through the book, and it's a terrific read so far. In the current section, the author is discussing his perceived "50-year cycle" for systemic U. S. political-economic changes. The book was finished in late summer 2008, after the drop in real estate prices was being felt, but before the financial system near-meltdown that began last September with the collapse of Bear Stearns. He dismisses the current crisis (admittedly not yet full-blown at the time of writing) as a normal cyclical recession, although he believes that it foreshadows much more fundamental demographic-driven changes coming in the 2020s. I wonder, given the severity and worldwide nature of the current downturn and the potential fundamental changes in political-financial-regulatory policy as a result, if he woulld be inclined to change his mind.

Author:  PeterScott [ Mon Apr 13, 2009 9:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Next 100 Years

The author's business site is http://www.stratfor.com/ . Much of the content is free. It seems from his articles post-financial collapse that they generally only get interested in economics when it threatens geopolitical stability. Which this apparently is doing, for Europe and Japan, in ways that are in content I haven't discovered and which may not be free.

If I had the discretionary cash I would so love to be a subscriber. Jerry Seinfeld does a bit about how guys read about international politics in the newspapers because they fantasize about being called in to help the State Department. I'm one of those guys.

Author:  JamesGifford [ Tue Apr 14, 2009 7:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Next 100 Years

Yes, his discussion seems to be "bigger" than things like the current economic bump. I was trying to discuss the book with my wife last night and she was bogged down in the small stuff that he's ignoring or skimming over. Whatever else the value of the book, the sense of... I don't know, studying this little blue marble in your hand is kind of exhilarating.

I was, amusingly enough, plowing through one of his thumping passages on the superiority of the US in world seas as the news of the pirate rescue came in.

Have had little reading time - will finish this shortly.

Author:  JackKelly [ Tue Apr 14, 2009 11:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Next 100 Years

Peter Scott wrote:
Just finished the book (due back at the library). When it gets into the future of space war, there are some huge Heinlein connections, especially on pages 188 and 202. Enjoy :-)


Holy smoke! I won't give it away, but how big of a visionary will Heinlein turn out to have been if either or both of these predictions come to pass?

Author:  PeterScott [ Tue Apr 14, 2009 12:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Next 100 Years

Jack Kelly wrote:
Holy smoke! I won't give it away, but how big of a visionary will Heinlein turn out to have been if either or both of these predictions come to pass?


Yeah, Friedman is another guy I would like to retroactively invite to speak at the Centennial.

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